Pt2 The Messianic Era in the Talmud: Calculations of World Duration and Messianic Timing (Sanhedrin 96b-99a)

This is the second part of a seven-part series. Part 1 is here; the outline of the series can be found at Part 1.

[Pt2] Calculations of world duration and messianic timing: Various rabbinic computations of six thousand year cycles, Jubilee periods, and cryptic scroll predictions about the world’s end; With voices also rejecting calculating the end times

R. Zeira - Do not calculate the end of days

כי הא דרבי זירא,

כי הוה משכח רבנן דמעסקי ביה,

אמר להו:

במטותא!

בעינא מנייכו!

לא תרחקוה,

This is as in that practice of R’ Zeira,

who, when he would find rabbis who were engaging in discussions about the coming of the Messiah,

said to them:

Please!

I ask of you!

do not delay his coming by calculating the end of days.

Baraita - three things come only when not anticipated: Messiah, a lost object, and a scorpion

דתנינא:

שלשה באין בהיסח הדעת,

אלו הן:

1. משיח,

2. מציאה,

3. ועקרב.

As we learn in a baraita:

There are three matters that come only by means of diversion of attention (היסח הדעת) from those matters,

and these are they:

1. The Messiah,

2. a lost item,

3. and a scorpion.

Rav Ketina - World lasts 6,000 years, then 1,000 years of desolation - Isaiah 2:11

אמר רב קטינא:

שית אלפי שני הוי עלמא,

וחד חרוב,

שנאמר: ״ונשגב ה׳ לבדו ביום ההוא״.

§ Rav Ketina says:

6,000 years is the duration of the world,¹

and it is in ruins for one thousand years.

The duration of the period during which the world is in ruins is derived from a verse, as it is stated: “And YHWH alone shall be exalted on that day” (Isaiah 2:11).²

Abaye - World in ruins for 2,000 years (revival on the third) - Hosea 6:2

אביי אמר:

תרי חרוב,

שנאמר:

״יחיינו מימים

ביום השלישי יקמנו

ונחיה לפניו״.

Abaye says: It is in ruins for two thousand years,

as it is stated:

“After two days He will revive us;

in the third day He will revive us,

and we shall live in His presence” (Hosea 6:2).

Baraita - World abrogates one millennium in every seven, like Shemitah

תניא כותיה דרב קטינא:

• כשם שהשביעית

  • משמטת שנה אחת לשבע שנים,

• כך העולם

  • משמט אלף שנים לשבעת אלפים שנה,

It is taught in a baraita in accordance with the opinion of Rav Ketina:

• Just as the 7th [=Sabbatical Year]

  • abrogates (משמטת) debts once in 7 years,

• so too, the world

  • abrogates its typical existence for 1,000 years in every 7,000 years,

Prooftexts - ‘a day that is all Shabbat’; 1 day = 1,000 years - Isaiah 2:11; Psalms 92:1, 90:4

• שנאמר:

  • ״ונשגב ה׳ לבדו ביום ההוא״,

• ואומר:

  • ״מזמור שיר ליום השבת״ –

    • יום שכולו שבת.

• ואומר:

  • ״כי אלף שנים בעיניך כיום אתמול כי יעבר״.

• as it is stated [in the context of the end of days]:

  • “And YHWH alone shall be exalted on that day,”

• and it states:

  • “A psalm, a song for the Shabbat day” (Psalms 92:1),

    • meaning a day, i.e., 1,000 years, that is entirely Shabbat.

• And it says in explanation of the equation between one day and 1,000 years:

  • “For 1,000 years in Your eyes are but like yesterday when it is past, and like a watch in the night” (Psalms 90:4).

Eliyahu’s School - World: 2,000 years of chaos, 2,000 of Torah, 2,000 of messianic days; due to sins, the expected schedule was delayed

תנא דבי אליהו:

ששת אלפים שנה הוי עלמא --

1. שני אלפים תוהו,

2. שני אלפים תורה,

3. שני אלפים ימות המשיח.

ובעונותינו שרבו --

יצאו מהם מה שיצאו.

The school of Eliyahu taught:

6,000 years is the duration of the world --

1. 2,000 of the 6,000 years are characterized by chaos;³

2. 2,000 years are characterized by Torah;⁴

3. and 2,000 years are the period of the coming of the Messiah.

That is the course that history was to take, but due to our many sins, the Messiah did not come after 4,00 years passed --

and the years that elapsed since then, which were to have been the messianic era, have elapsed.

Anecdote - Elijah to R. Yehuda (brother of Rav Sala Ḥasida) - The world will exist at least 85 jubilees; in the final jubilee, Messiah comes Beginning/end of that jubilee unknown; from then on, anticipate

אמר ליה אליהו לרב יהודה אחוה דרב סלא חסידא:

אין העולם פחות משמונים וחמשה יובלות,

וביובל האחרון בן דוד בא.

אמר ליה: בתחילתו או בסופו?

אמר ליה: איני יודע.

כלה או אינו כלה?

אמר ליה: איני יודע.

Elijah the prophet said to Rav Yehuda, brother of Rav Sala Ḥasida:

The world will exist no fewer than 85 Jubilee cycles⁵

And during the final Jubilee, the son of David will come.

Rav Yehuda said to Elijah: Will the Messiah come during the beginning of the Jubilee or during its end?

Elijah said to Rav Yehuda: I do not know.

Rav Yehuda asked: Will this last Jubilee cycle end before the Messiah comes or will it not yet end before his coming?

Elijah said to him: I do not know.

Rav Ashi interpreting Elijah - Until that time--do not anticipate Messiah’s coming; from this point forward--anticipate his coming

רב אשי אמר:

הכי אמר ליה:

• עד הכא

  • לא תיסתכי ליה,

• מכאן ואילך

  • איסתכי ליה.

Rav Ashi says:

This is what Elijah said to him:

• Until that time

  • do not anticipate (תיסתכי) his coming;

• from this point forward

  • anticipate his coming.

Elijah did not inform Rav Yehuda of the date of the coming of the Messiah.

Rav Ḥanan bar Taḥlifa (from Roman archive scroll) - After 4291 years from Creation, the world becomes ‘orphaned’; includes Leviathan, Wars of Gog and Magog, and the messianic years; God renews the world after 7,000 years (Alternative version: after 5,000 years)

שלח ליה רב חנן בר תחליפא לרב יוסף:

מצאתי אדם אחד

ובידו מגילה אחת כתובה אשורית ולשון קדש.

אמרתי לו: זו מניין לך?

אמר לי:

לחיילות של רומי נשכרתי

ובין גינזי רומי מצאתיה.

Rav Ḥanan bar Taḥlifa sent a message to Rav Yosef:

I found one man,

and in his hand there was one scroll written in Ashurit⁶ script and in the sacred tongue, Hebrew.

I said to him: From where did this scroll come into your possession?

He said to me:

I was hired to serve in the Roman army

and I found the scroll among the Roman archives.

It was clear that the scroll was written by Jews, not Romans.

וכתוב בה:

לאחר ארבעת אלפים ומאתים ותשעים ואחד שנה לבריאתו של עולם --

העולם יתום.

• מהן

  • מלחמות תנינים,

• מהן

  • מלחמות גוג ומגוג,

ושאר ימות המשיח.

ואין הקדוש ברוך הוא מחדש את עולמו אלא לאחר שבעת אלפים שנה.

רב אחא בריה דרבא אמר: לאחר חמשת אלפים שנה איתמר.

And it is written in the scroll:

After 4,291 years have elapsed from the creation of the world --

the world will end;

• during those years

  • there will be the wars of the sea monsters (תנינים) between the Leviathan and the animals,

• and among those years

  • there will be the wars of Gog and Magog

and the remaining years of the messianic period.

Then the world will be destroyed.

And God will renew His world only after the passage of 7,000 years.

Rav Aḥa, son of Rava, says that it was stated: After the passage of 5,000 years.

R. Natan - ‘For the vision is for the appointed time… though it tarry, wait for it’—the end is unfathomable; not as other calculations - Habakkuk 2:3

תניא:

רבי נתן אומר:

מקרא זה נוקב ויורד עד תהום:

״כי עוד חזון למועד

ויפח לקץ, ולא יכזב

אם יתמהמה --

חכה לו

כי בא יבא

לא יאחר״.

§ It is taught in a baraita that

R’ Natan says:

This verse penetrates (נוקב) and descends until the depths (תהום - tehom); just as the depths are unfathomable, so too, the period depicted in the following verse is unquantifiable.

“For the vision is yet for the appointed time;

and it declares of the end, and does not lie;

though it tarry —

wait for it,

because it will surely come;

it will not delay” (Habakkuk 2:3).

Rejects rabbis’ interpretations of Daniel 7:25

לא כרבותינו שהיו דורשין:

״עד

1. עדן

2. עדנין

3. ופלג עדן״.

The Messiah will come not in accordance with the opinion of our Rabbis, who would interpret the verse:

“For a

1. period

2. and periods

3. and a half period” (Daniel 7:25)⁷

Rejects R’ Simlai’s interpretation of Psalms 80:6

ולא כרבי שמלאי, שהיה דורש:

״האכלתם לחם דמעה

ותשקמו בדמעות שליש״.

And the Messiah will come not in accordance with the opinion of R’ Simlai, who would interpret the verse:

“You have fed them with the bread of tears

and have given them tears to drink in great measure [shalish]” (Psalms 80:6)⁸

Rejects R’ Akiva’s interpretation of Haggai 2:6

ולא כרבי עקיבא, שהיה דורש:

״עוד אחת מעט היא

ואני מרעיש את השמים ואת הארץ״.

And the Messiah will come not in accordance with the opinion of R’ Akiva, who would interpret the verse:

“Yet once, it is a little while,

and I will shake the heavens and the earth” (Haggai 2:6),

to mean that the redemption would transpire soon after the destruction of the Temple.

1st, great, Hasmonean monarchy ruled 70 years; The 2nd kingdom, of Herod and his descendants, ruled 52 years; and Bar-Kokheva, was 2.5 years

אלא

1. מלכות ראשונה –

   1. שבעים שנה,

2. מלכות שניה –

   1. חמשים ושתים,

3. ומלכות בן כוזיבא –

   1. שתי שנים ומחצה.

Rather,

1. the 1st, great, Hasmonean monarchy

   1. ruled 70 years.

2. The 2nd kingdom, of Herod and his descendants,

   1. ruled 52 years,

3. and the duration of the monarchy of bar Koziva, or bar Kokheva,

   1. was 2.5 years.⁹

The duration of the exile that follows is unknown.

R. Shmuel bar Naḥmani in name of R. Yonatan - Cursed be those who calculate the end; nevertheless, wait for it - Habakkuk 2:3

מאי ״ויפח לקץ ולא יכזב״?

אמר רבי שמואל בר נחמני, אמר רבי יונתן:

תיפח עצמן של מחשבי קיצין,

שהיו אומרים כיון שהגיע (את) הקץ ולא בא – שוב אינו בא.

אלא חכה לו,

שנאמר: ״אם יתמהמה חכה לו״.

The Talmud asks: What is the meaning of the phrase “And it declares [ve-yafe’aḥ] of the end, and does not lie”?

R’ Shmuel bar Naḥmani says that R’ Yonatan says:

May those who calculate the end of days be cursed [tippaḥ],

as they would say once the end of days that they calculated arrived and the Messiah did not come, that he will no longer come at all.

Rather, the proper behavior is to continue to wait for his coming,

as it is stated: “Though it tarry, wait for it.”

God too waits to be gracious - Isaiah 30:18

שמא תאמר: אנו מחכין והוא אינו מחכה?

תלמוד לומר:

״ולכן יחכה ה׳ לחננכם

ולכן ירום לרחמכם״.

Lest you say we are expectantly awaiting the end of days and God, is not awaiting the end of days and does not want to redeem His people,

the verse states:

“And therefore will YHWH wait, to be gracious to you;

and therefore will He be exalted, to have mercy upon you; for YHWH is a God of judgment; happy are all they who wait for Him” (Isaiah 30:18).

The attribute of judgment delays redemption; awaiting it earns reward - Isaiah 30:18; Psalms 40:5 / 119:166 (theme); Isaiah 30:18

וכי מאחר שאנו מחכים, והוא מחכה, מי מעכב?

מדת הדין מעכבת.

וכי מאחר שמדת הדין מעכבת, אנו למה מחכין?

לקבל שכר,

שנאמר: ״אשרי כל חוכי לו״.

[...]

And seemingly, since we are awaiting the end of days and God, is also awaiting the end of days, who is preventing the coming of the Messiah?

It is the divine attribute of judgment that prevents his coming, as it is written: “For YHWH is a God of judgment,” and we are not worthy.

And since the attribute of judgment prevents the coming of the Messiah and we are not worthy of redemption, why do we await his coming daily?

We do so in order to receive a reward for awaiting his coming,

as it is stated: “Happy are all they who wait for Him.”

[...]

Rav - All calculated deadlines have passed; redemption depends only on repentance and good deeds; Shmuel - It is enough for the mourner to endure his mourning (i.e. redemption may come due to suffering even without repentance)

אמר רב:

כלו כל הקיצין,

ואין הדבר תלוי אלא בתשובה ומעשים טובים.

ושמואל אמר: דיו לאבל שיעמוד באבלו.

[...]

§ Rav says: All the ends of days that were calculated passed, and the matter depends only upon repentance and good deeds. When the Jewish people repent, they will be redeemed.

And Shmuel says: It is sufficient for the mourner to endure in his mourning to bring about the coming of the Messiah.

Even without repentance, they will be worthy of redemption due to the suffering they endured during the exile.

[...]

1. On this, see Wikipedia, “Year 6000“:

The Hebrew year 6000 marks according to classical Rabbinical Jewish sources, the latest time for the initiation of the Messianic Age.

The Talmud, Midrash, Pirkei De-Rabbi Eliezer, and Zohar specify that the date by which the Messiah will appear is 6,000 years from creation.

According to tradition, the Anno Mundi calendar started at the time of creation, placed at 3761 BCE.

The current (2025/2026 [CE]) Hebrew year is 5786 [AM = Anno Mundi].

By this calculation, the start of the 6000th year would occur at nightfall of 29 September 2239 [CE, =214 years in the future] and the end would occur at nightfall of 16 September 2240 [CE] on the Gregorian calendar.

So, years remaining: 6000 AM - 5786 AM = 214 years.

On all the calculations of the messianic end times here in the sugya, compare the summary and synthesis in Hebrew Wikipedia, “חישוב הקץ“, section “בימי המשנה והתלמוד“.

2. Steinsaltz:

and the day of God lasts 1,000 years.

On this, see the later section, “Prooftexts - ‘a day that is all Shabbat’; 1 day = 1,000 years - Isaiah 2:11; Psalms 92:1, 90:4“.

This idea appears a number of times elsewhere in the Talmud as well.

3. תוהו - tohu.

Timeframe: From Adam to Abraham.

• “Tohu” (chaos or void) refers to an era without Torah revelation, where humanity lacked divine guidance.

• This includes the eras of Adam, Noah, the Flood, the Tower of Babel — all pre-Abrahamic epochs.

• The midrash counts this as roughly from Creation (year 0 AM) to Abraham at age 52, when he began to recognize God’s unity (year 1948 AM in the traditional Hebrew calendar).

So, 0–2000 AM → Chaos.

4. Ed. Steinsaltz:

from the era of the Patriarchs until the end of the mishnaic period

Timeframe: From Abraham to around the completion of the Mishnah.

• The “Torah era” begins not at Sinai, but with Abraham, who began teaching divine truths (see Avodah_Zarah.9a.7 that from Abraham’s 52nd year, the two thousand years of Torah began.)

• This era includes the patriarchs, the Exodus, Sinai, the prophets, and the Second Temple period.

• It ends with the completion of the Mishnah (~200 CE), i.e., the close of the classical period of Torah formulation.

So, 2000–4000 AM → Torah.

5. יובלות.

Ed. Steinsaltz:

or 4,250 years (=85 x 50)

According to the traditional Jewish calendar, year 4250 AM corresponds to approximately 490 CE.

To put this in historical context:

• This is about 250 years after the expected beginning of the messianic era (year 4000 AM ≈ 240 CE)

• The Talmudic period was still ongoing - the Babylonian Talmud was being compiled and would be completed around 500 CE

• The Roman Empire in the West was collapsing (it fell in 476 CE)

• The Byzantine Empire was flourishing in the East

• This was during the reign of Emperor Anastasius I in Byzantium

• Jews were living under both Byzantine and Sassanian Persian rule

So when this Talmudic passage laments that “due to our many sins, the years have elapsed,” by 490 CE they would have been reflecting on 250 years of delayed redemption since the anticipated messianic arrival at year 4000 AM.

The poignancy of the passage becomes clearer in this context - the rabbis were living in an era when the “messianic clock” should have been well into its redemptive phase, yet they remained in exile, under foreign rule, waiting.

6. אשורית .

This is the standard Talmudic term for standard Hebrew script.

Compare my “The Evolution of Hebrew Script and Ezra’s Role in Torah Transmission (Sanhedrin 21b-22a)“, and the intro there.

7. Ed. Steinsaltz:

to mean that the duration of the ultimate exile will be 3.5 times the duration of the period of the exile in Egypt.

The Egyptian exile is traditionally counted as 400 years, based on Genesis 15:13:

“Your descendants will be strangers in a land not theirs… four hundred years.”

Therefore:

3.5 × 400 = 1,400 years

So, according to this interpretation, the “ultimate exile” — the exile from which the Messiah would come — was to last 1,400 years.

That is, the messianic redemption would come 1,400 years after the destruction of the Temple - the destruction of the First Temple (586 BCE) or the Second Temple (70 CE).

Alternatively, the Egyptian exile lasted 210 years (according to the traditional count from Jacob’s descent to Egypt until the Exodus).

Therefore: 210 × 3.5 = 735 years.

8. Ed. Steinsaltz:

to mean that the duration of the ultimate exile will be 3 times the duration of the period of the exile in Egypt.

So, based on previous note, either:

• 3 × 400 = 1,200 years

• 210 × 3 = 630 years.

9. This length of Bar-Kochba’s rule is also mentioned later in the sugya, Sanhedrin.93b.8, in the context of Bar-Kochba as a messiah claimant:

בר כוזיבא מלך תרתין שנין ופלגא.

אמר להו לרבנן: אנא משיח.

אמרו ליה:

במשיח כתיב דמורח ודאין,

נחזי אנן אי מורח ודאין.

כיון דחזיוה דלא מורח ודאין —

קטלוה.

Bar Koziva, i.e., bar Kokheva, ruled for two and a half years.

He said to the rabbis (רבנן): I am the Messiah.

They said to him:

With regard to the Messiah it is written that he is able to smell (מורח) and judge,

so let us see ourselves whether he, bar Kokheva, is able to smell and judge.

Once they saw that he was not able to smell and judge —

they killed him.